How do you play Aces: Part Three – The Analysis
So in case you missed it, I wrote two posts (part 1 here, part 2 here) that led up to a decision to call off most of my stack with Aces on an 8c-7s-6c flop. Ultimately, I made the call and I was right, I was ahead.
I don’t want to focus too much on the result of the turn and the river, and instead want to focus on the play of making the call on the flop. I raised pre-flop an appropriate amount I believe, and I continued with a bet size that was appropriate. And when the SB villain moves in on me, I need to establish a range of what I’m ahead of, and what I’m behind.
First things first, I was behind either a flopped straight (either 9-T or 9-5) and I didn’t see the SB calling the preflop raise with either of those hands, so I ruled them out. Then I was behind any flopped set, and I thought a little bit. Does the small blind set mine with 66, 77, or 88. I debated this a little, and thought that given how big my preflop raise was, it was unlikely that those hands were in the range to call pre-flop. Virtually every other holding I had crushed (other than flopped two pair), and I just needed to fade either a straight draw or a flush draw with two cards to come. With just a little more than 3k to call, I decided to gamble thinking that I was ahead.
It turned out that I was right, as villain turned over the 9c-9s for nothing but a pair, but he also had an open ended straight draw. He’d get there on the river when the T hit, and I was left with a little over 20 BB’s in the tournament, which I later got into a spot 4-bet shoving with QQ and getting called by T-4os. A 4 on the flop and a T on the turn sent me packing, and I got my keys and headed out to the parking lot just a few minutes into the 2nd level. I called my wife and told her that I was heading home, and so ended my one big shot.
I don’t actually regret the play that I made. I thought that I was ahead of my opponents range, and it turned out that I was right. I thought that I actually had bigger edge than it turned out that I did, but I was basically a 60-40 favorite in that spot, and getting somewhere near 5 to 1 on a call. If the cards were flipped up and I knew what my opponent had, I’m making that call…every time. So I know that I played it correctly.
I have to take solace in that, and know that if I’m consistently putting myself in those positions, where I’m a favorite to win a majority of the time, that I’ll do well in this game. Hopefully, I can continue to play a little more and put that to the test.
Thanks to everyone for your responses and your looks into how this hand was played. I’m still curious to see how many people agreed with the way that I played this, and how many people think that I should have checked the flop, and bet big on the turn. I understand that play as well, but I think that the way that I approached the hand was fine for the specific tournament given the structure and range on my opponent. But lets hear from you. Do you agree with the way the hand was played?