Grandma

While you don’t hate the flop, I am certainly concerned that it is coordinated. My first guess is the UTG is raising/calling with hand like AKx/AQs or a stronger pair like 10s – Queens. The SB call feels more like a medium pair like 5s-Js that is willing to set mine. I don’t put SB calling with a AK type hand as I would think he would raise pre-flop instead of a flat call which I why I feel he is set mining.

It is checked around and you want to take it down now so straights or flushes don’t catch up. No free card yet at the same time you should abstract a bit more information or take it down. I am going to bet enough to make the draws uncomfortable to risk another river bet. Your bet size is perfect. I would have bet about 3/4 pot size, and since i would be lazy with estimates, probably put out 1800 which is the same as your 1750.

The SB check raise does not feel like a bluff at all. What could he think you have other than an over pair? Nothing. I think your hand is fairly well known to be a big pair. AK is the only other hand and you would likely check behind if that was the case. So he is either ahead now with a set, or the only hand that make sense is a pair of 10s. He probably has the set and hoping you will fall to the disease of not getting away from your KK or AA.

Final decision — drop the one pair of aces, or risk 3600 to win 10000 to grow your stack to 16K. Sure you only have to be right ~1 in 4 to think your decision is right and if you are right, you have a nice stack early. Where do you stand if you only have 2500 remaining — way below avg. Can you still compete if you folded and therefore fell back to the starting 6K stack — yes. I might be a nit, but I fold my aces thinking he has a set as I am only a 8% on the turn and 5% on the river to beat with set over set. No thanks, I will be patient and wait.

Summary – great bet size on the c-bet and hard lay down on the check/raise, but that is my choice.

Certainly there are a couple other hands he could have played that way such as Kings or 9-10c, J-10c. Wth Kings, he calls the pre-flop 3-bets hoping that no ace hits the flop. If so, he would let you put in one more bet in before putting down the hammer. But I still think he has a set.

I think IP you can make it 625-750. It doesn’t need to be that large imo and it gives people room to play back if they think you are out of line. Obviously there’s nothing that wrong with a larger 3bet either, but I think IP you might as well keep it small because unless you’re also making large 3bets (T$850+ in this spot for instance) with KQs or TJs here it becomes kind of obvious what kind of hand you’re holding. (big pair)

Raise amount was calculated at 3-4x plus the amount contributed by the two others before you (150x~3.5 + 150+150) which resulted in raise of range around 750-900. A raise of 800 brings the pot to 1325. They would have to call 650 to win 1325.

If you want to adjust the raise size, make it larger over smaller, but I think 800 is a good raise size.

Heck, now I feel silly that I see Street3 also said 750. If Mr. Spewalot Carse says 750, then I say 1200. But seriously 800 give them just over 2.1-1 odds.